Saturday, January 10, 2015

7 Charts That Show the Disaster That Would Have Been The Confederate States of America

Had the south won the Civil War in 1865 and created the Confederate States of America at the Maryland-Virginia border the situation economically would have been unsustainable and deteriorated so badly that it would have been a nightmare for its residents. War on your soil is never good for your economy but the Confederate States of America (CSA) would have never survived had they won the Civil War. Never mind the the very obvious population migration to what would have been pro-union people to the north the war would never ended in the South. Even after a concession and treaty with the Union the war for the south would have still continued for decades or generations to come.

As evidenced by this map of slave population concentrations they would have continued fighting the war through uprisings and rebellions even if the Union Army would have conceded. Source




Being in a constant state of war (either from slave rebellions or impending Union Army invasions also don't forget the Mexican army who might want Texas back) the Confederate State's of America would have experienced prolonged sustained bouts of high inflation on goods and services due to their constant state of or potential state of war. 


not to mention pressure on prices


Inability to finance the war effort would have likely spilled over to an inability to finance the reconstruction of the CSA. There was a vast effort in the re-unified United States to re-construct the south. This chart shows quarterly growth rate of the Confederate primary deficit in real terms. The negative values after third quarter 1862 reflect mostly the inability to find willing purchasers for Confederate debt as the military situation of the South deteriorated (source


There would have been no one left to buy CSA debt. Without this ability they would not have had the ability to finance project for construction like their railroad network which served as the veins of their economy. Most of the railroad was incomplete prior at the start of the Civil War and would have needed significant improvements. One historian noted it would take a generation to restore the railroad system in the south




Re-building the railroads took a generation and this was WITH the help of Northern states during reconstruction. With a lack of an ability to finance re-construction and infrastructure CSA trade and their economy would collapse leading to the crumbling of tax collections and an eventual collapsing of their bond markets 


Of course this is an exercise of "what ifs" but we do have a slight window into how awful the CSA would have been as a place to live in a post CSA victory world. 





Some people argue the south never recovered from the Civil War. 
























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